費波那契波浪隨筆

以下是某人的看盤觀念, 雖然是2011年的分析
主要是參考他如何使用技術指標



Yesterday, when the crude oil market opened at 8:30, this is the chart I was watching to determine what the plan might be. No decisions made yet, just getting familiar with the current structure of the market. The prior strong move up (highlighted with a yellow line), coupled with a series of higher highs (I'll show in another chart) had me looking to take a trade in the long direction. For a swing trade, there were two possible stong entry points. I've circled them in white and labeled "Zone 1" and "Zone 2". By this time in the morning, Zone 1 had already been slightly penetrated, but could still be valid area. But trying to get into this trade where it was would put me in a position too close to an area where stop loss orders were most likely concentrated (just below the pivot of Wave A) Therefore, for a long entry in this zone, price would need to breakout above the prior 15 minute high around 99.20. We wait and watch.
昨天我在8:30開始看盤, 原油市場, 然後計畫下一步動作;
之前有一段強力的上升(黃色線),接著一高過一高,所以我認定之後要做多
依波浪理論,這裡有zone1和zone2兩個進場點
今天早上,zone1已經被向下突破了,但我還是認為這裡是個支撐,
如果我在這邊作買單,停損會設在前波段低點(Probable Stop Loss),太近了
所以較佳進場做買單的點,在突破前高(99.2)之後再做進場

後來並沒有突破前高99.2, 反而向下突破到zone2,
也就是下圖中WaveC的低點,這裡碰到一個常見的走勢
"認定大方向上升,但是看到盤勢往下時,如何處理?"
1.等待下一個向上突破的訊號出現,Price breaks out above the trend filter
2.突破之後,認定回檔50%~75%區域為入場區,Long Trade Zone, 停損設在WaveC低點
3.在入場區找向上突破訊號,如上圖說的,突破前高再進場,