Market the Master 第一章(一)

1. Market Basics

1.1 Random Walks & Other Misconceptions
隨機現象及其他錯誤觀念
The stock market appears confusing and complicated, but it is most definitely based on logic. Like any
other free market place, prices in the financial markets are controlled by supply and demand – this is
no great secret. However, the laws of supply and demand, as observed in the markets, do not behave
as one would expect. To be an effective trader, there is a great need to understand how supply and
demand can be interpreted under different market conditions, and how you can take advantage of this
knowledge.
市場看似隨機,但它實際上有邏輯可循,如其他市場,供需法則是它的基本,但是由供需法則導出的現象和一般人預期的不同,一個交易人最好能了解在不同盤勢時,供需法則的表現



1.2 What is the Market?什麼是市場?
什麼是市場?
The first secret to learn in trading successfully (as opposed to investing), is to forget about the intrinsic
value of a stock, or any other instrument. What you need to be concerned with is its perceived value -
its value to professional traders, not the value it represents as an interest in a company. The intrinsic
value is only a component of perceived value. This is a contradiction that undoubtedly mystifies the
directors of strong companies with a weak stock! From now on, remember that it is the perceived
value which is reflected in the price of a stock, and not, as you might expect, its intrinsic value. We
shall return to this later, when looking at the subject of stock selection.
預期價值才是最重要的,市場上的價值不重要
(percived value翻成預期價值不知道正不正確)

1.3 The Market Professionals
市場上的專業人

1.4 A Special Word About Market-Makers
造市者

It is important to understand that the market-makers do not control the market. They are responding to
market conditions and taking advantage of opportunities presented to them. Where there is a window of
opportunity provided by market conditions – panic selling or thin trading – they may see the potential to
increase profits through price manipulation, but they can only do so if the market allows them to. You
must not therefore assume that market-makers control the markets. No individual trader or organisation
can control any but the most thinly traded of markets for any substantial period of time.
你不要認為造市者可以控制市場,他們只是在市場允許他們動作時獲取最多的利潤,有時候他們可以造勢,那只是在有短期恐慌賣壓或淺碟市場時.事實上沒有一個團體可以控制市場.
Market-makers are fully aware of the activities of trading syndicates and other professional operators that
place substantial orders. It therefore makes sense that they will take whatever opportunity is available to
better their own accounts accordingly.
造市者熟知專業交易人接下來的動作,他們因此可以從此獲利

1.5 Volume – The Key to the Truth
交易量,真實的關鍵
Volume is the major indicator for the professional trader.
交易量是專業交易人的主要指標
You have to ask yourself why the members of the self-regulated Exchanges around the world like to keep
true volume information away from you as far as possible. The reason is because they know how important
it is in analysing a market!
為什麼國外交易所不提供交易量給投資人,因為他們知道交易量很重要

Some technical indicators attempt to combine volume and price movements together. This is a better way,
but rest assured that this approach has its limitations too, because at times the market will go up on high
volume, but can do exactly the same thing on low volume. Prices can suddenly go sideways, or even fall
off, on exactly the same volume! So, there are obviously other factors at work.
有和成交量相關的指標是比較好的,但同樣的問題,人常看到在同樣成交量時,有上漲有下跌有盤整
因而無法判斷

You frequently hear of large blocks of stock being traded between professionals, bypassing what appears to
be the usual routes. My broker, who is supposedly "in the know", once told me to ignore the very high
volume seen in the market that day, because most of the volume was only market-makers trading amongst
themselves. These professionals trade to make money and while there may be many reasons for these
transactions, whatever is going on, you can be assured one thing: It is not designed for your benefit. You
should certainly never ignore any abnormal volume in the market
日中突然爆的大量,往往是專業人士在換手,你不要想從中獲利,但要關注這些大量

In fact, you should also watch closely for volume surges in other markets that are related to that which you
are trading. For example, there may be sudden high volume in the options market, or the futures market.
Volume is activity! You have to ask yourself, why is the ‘smart money’ active right now?
另外,要注意相關市場的成交量